Result TO01000345-V4
Within the following text, you’ll find an in-depth exposition of the findings from TO01000345-V4 – Productive and regulation functions performance of forest in the Czech Republic and in Inland county (Norway) in the past, present and the future.
Productive function
Building on the robust climate growth model developed in mandatory outputs (TO01000345-V1), we used (TO01000345-V4) downscaled climate projections based on the MPI-ESM1.2-HR global climate models for the SSP 2-4.5 emission scenario to assess future conifer production in the Czech Republic. The model, trained with observations from the DendroNetwork, effectively captures the complex relationship between climate conditions, in particular local vapour pressure deficit (VPD), and conifer growth.To simulate future conifer production, the climate growth model was driven by downscaled climate projections for the SSP 2-4.5 emissions scenario. This scenario, which represents a mid-range emissions trajectory, provides insight into potential growth under a moderate climate change scenario. The model simulations showed a mixed picture for future conifer production. While warmer temperatures and increased precipitation are generally expected to enhance tree growth, higher VPD as a consequence of climate change have a negative impact.
Regulation function
The method involves the use of SoilClim for the analysis of forest regulatory functions. The results are presented in the form of different geospatial data files. SoilClim: simulation of soil and ecosystem water balance – the model boundary conditions are represented by in situ climate data or climate projections. Key parameters include soil properties and land cover specific physiological parameters.
SoilClim method (simulation of soil and ecosystem water balance) was used for the future predictions using climate projections based on downscaled MPI-ESM1.2-HR global climate models for the SSP 2-4.5 emission scenario. Data are presented for four 30-year time blocks 2015-2044, 2035-2064, 2055-2084 and 2070-2099. We chose shifts in actual evapotranspiration, normalised to reference evapotranspiration, as a key variable describing the regulating function of the forest. Actual evapotranspiration normalised by reference evapotranspiration for coniferous (and deciduous) forests in the Czech Republic, derived from an in situ data-driven water balance model, was calculated as the difference between the period 1981-2010 (normal period) and specific time blocks.
List of attached specialised maps:
Map_V4-1.pdf Shift in productivity for conifers in the Czech Republic derived from field observations (DedroNetwork) and climate data based on downscaled MPI-ESM1.2-HR global climate models for SSP 2-4.5 emission scenario form new CMIP6 between the period 1981–2010 and 2015–2044
Map_V4-2.pdf Shift in productivity for conifers in the Czech Republic derived from field observations (DedroNetwork) and climate data based on downscaled MPI-ESM1.2-HR global climate models for SSP 2-4.5 emission scenario form new CMIP6 between the period 1981–2010 and 2035–2064
Map_V4-3.pdf Shift in productivity for conifers in the Czech Republic derived from field observations (DedroNetwork) and climate data based on downscaled MPI-ESM1.2-HR global climate models for SSP 2-4.5 emission scenario form new CMIP6 between the period 1981–2010 and 2055–2084
Map_V4-4.pdf Shift in productivity for conifers in the Czech Republic derived from field observations (DedroNetwork) and climate data based on downscaled MPI-ESM1.2-HR global climate models for SSP 2-4.5 emission scenario form new CMIP6 between the period 1981–2010 and 2070–2099
Map_V4-5.pdf Shift in actual evapotranspiration normalized by reference evapotranspiration for conifers in the Czech Republic derived from in situ data driven water balance model SoilClim between the period 1981–2010 and 2015–2044
Map_V4-6.pdf Shift in actual evapotranspiration normalized by reference evapotranspiration for broadleaf in the Czech Republic derived from in situ data driven water balance model SoilClim between the period 1981–2010 and 2015–2044
Map_V4-7.pdf Shift in actual evapotranspiration normalized by reference evapotranspiration for conifers in the Czech Republic derived from in situ data driven water balance model SoilClim between the period 1981–2010 and 2035–2064
Map_V4-8.pdf Shift in actual evapotranspiration normalized by reference evapotranspiration for broadleaf in the Czech Republic derived from in situ data driven water balance model SoilClim between the period 1981–2010 and 2035–2064
Map_V4-9.pdf Shift in actual evapotranspiration normalized by reference evapotranspiration for conifers in the Czech Republic derived from in situ data driven water balance model SoilClim between the period 1981–2010 and 2055–2084
Map_V4-10.pdf Shift in actual evapotranspiration normalized by reference evapotranspiration for broadleaf in the Czech Republic derived from in situ data driven water balance model SoilClim between the period 1981–2010 and 2055–2084
Map_V4-11.pdfShift in actual evapotranspiration normalized by reference evapotranspiration for conifers in the Czech Republic derived from in situ data driven water balance model SoilClim between the period 1981–2010 and 2070–2099
Map_V4-12.pdf Shift in actual evapotranspiration normalized by reference evapotranspiration for broadleaf in the Czech Republic derived from in situ data driven water balance model SoilClim between the period 1981–2010 and 2070–2099